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IK brage vs IFK Norrkoping — Superettan 2026

IK brage
IK brage
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
5/16/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 8Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

IK brage31%
×Draw27%
IFK Norrkoping42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK brage
1.12
IFK Norrkoping
1.36

IFK Norrkoping creates 21% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 8 away

creates per match

IK brage
1.61
IFK Norrkoping
1.38

allows per match

IK brage
1.34
IFK Norrkoping
0.63

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

IK brage or draw
58%
IK brage or IFK Norrkoping
73%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
69%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+
12%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals
67%
IK brage 2+ goals
31%
IK brage 3+ goals
10%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
74%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
39%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)
42%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + IFK Norrkoping defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.12

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.38 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IK brage scores more
31%
level
27%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
42%

IFK Norrkoping at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
L. Konjuhi← T. Stagaard
45+2'
T. Krantz← D. Mitov Nilsson
46'
V. O. Falth← A. Eriksson
47'
Viggo Fälth
60'
Anton Lundin
66'
H. Brkic← G. Granstrom
66'
A. Hellblom← A. Lundin
67'
A. Mortensen← O. Stark
67'
T. Prica← A. Aleksanjan
67'
F. Dagerstal← A. Bronner
77'
Haris Brkic
80'
Moutaz Neffati
83'
G. Nordh← P. Jonsson
87'
T. Sandberg← E. Jemal

Possession

47%IK

Statistics

IKIFK
Overview
47%Possession53%
12Corners4
Shots
3On Target0
4Off Target5
0Blocked0
Passing
47%Possession53%
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Superettan: IK brage 0–0 IFK Norrkoping

IK brage and IFK Norrkoping drew 0-0 in Superettan on May 16, 2026.

IFK Norrkoping dominated possession with 53% of the ball.

The match was played at Domnarvsvallen in Borlange.