IFK Norrkoping 1–1 IK brage: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

IK brage

C. Nyman 70'

J. Arvidsson 85'

2/18/2024

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Norrkoping44%

×Draw24%

IK brage32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchIK brage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.38

IFK Norrkoping

1.67

IK brage

1.38

IFK Norrkoping creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

2.00

creates per match

1.83

0.92

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

2.00

IK brage

1.83

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

0.92

IK brage

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

IK brage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

68%

IFK Norrkoping or IK brage

76%

Draw or IK brage

56%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

23%

IK brage wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

81%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

50%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

23%

IK brage 1+ goals

75%

IK brage 2+ goals

40%

IK brage 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

58%

IK brage (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.00 + IK brage defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

IK brage attack 1.83 + IFK Norrkoping defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

44%

level

24%

IK brage scores more

32%

IFK Norrkoping at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

A. Zetterstrom

58'

L. Shabani

65'

Í. Sigurgeirsson← C. Björk

65'

J. Ceesay← S. Bolma

66'

J. Arvidsson← P. Jonsson

70'

C. Nyman

78'

K. Appiah Nyarko← G. Berggren

80'

D. Salihović← I. Lushaku

85'

90+1'

90+3'

90'

90'

Y. Kalley← M. Baggesen

90+2'

E. Asante Gayi← Ieltsin Camões

IFK

IK

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Nyman

▼

Björk

Shabani

Manager: A. Alm

65'▲Í. Sigurgeirsson←▼C. Björk

65'▲J. Ceesay←▼S. Bolma

80'▲D. Salihović←▼I. Lushaku

90'▲L. Jonsson←▼C. Nyman

90'▲Y. Kalley←▼M. Baggesen

IFK Norrkoping substitutes

SigurgeirssonCeesaySalihovićJonssonKalleySögaardAnderssonBurubwaSandberg

Manager: J. Mian

66'▲J. Arvidsson←▼P. Jonsson

78'▲K. Appiah Nyarko←▼G. Berggren

90+2'▲E. Asante Gayi←▼Ieltsin Camões

IK brage substitutes

ArvidssonNyarkoGayiTitiBernardiniWeilidAbicPektasIzountouemoi

Match Recap: IFK Norrkoping vs IK brage

IFK Norrkoping and IK brage drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 18, 2024.

Goals: C. Nyman (70'), J. Arvidsson (85').

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.

IFK Norrkoping vs IK brage — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: IFK Norrkoping vs IK brage