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IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF — Superettan 2018

IK brage
IK brage
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
4/17/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 2Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

IK brage40%
×Draw24%
Falkenbergs FF36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK brage
1.59
Falkenbergs FF
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 54 away

creates per match

IK brage
1.61
Falkenbergs FF
1.61

allows per match

IK brage
1.34
Falkenbergs FF
1.57

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IK brage or draw
64%
IK brage or Falkenbergs FF
76%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
60%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+
20%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals
80%
IK brage 2+ goals
47%
IK brage 3+ goals
21%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
77%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
43%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)
53%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.57 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.59

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.61 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IK brage scores more
40%
level
24%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
36%

IK brage at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF

Falkenbergs FF beat IK brage 1-0 in Superettan on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Borlänge.