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Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage — Superettan 2018

Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
IK brage
IK brage
8/9/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 18Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Falkenbergs FF44%
×Draw25%
IK brage31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkenbergs FF
1.56
IK brage
1.28

Falkenbergs FF creates 22% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 127 away

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.70
IK brage
1.30

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.26
IK brage
1.43

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par
IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

IK brage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw
69%
Falkenbergs FF or IK brage
75%
Draw or IK brage
56%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
22%
IK brage wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
79%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
46%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
21%
IK brage 1+ goals
72%
IK brage 2+ goals
37%
IK brage 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
58%
IK brage (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.70 + IK brage defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

IK brage attack 1.30 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more
44%
level
25%
IK brage scores more
31%

Falkenbergs FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Falkenbergs FF 0–1 IK brage

IK brage beat Falkenbergs FF 1-0 in Superettan on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Falkenberg.