Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

IK brage vs Dalkurd FF — Superettan 2018

IK brage
IK brage
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
5/19/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 8Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

IK brage49%
×Draw24%
Dalkurd FF27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK brage
1.66
Dalkurd FF
1.17

IK brage creates 42% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 48 away

creates per match

IK brage
1.61
Dalkurd FF
1.00

allows per match

IK brage
1.34
Dalkurd FF
1.71

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

IK brage or draw
73%
IK brage or Dalkurd FF
76%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
51%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+
26%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals
81%
IK brage 2+ goals
49%
IK brage 3+ goals
23%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
69%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
33%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)
64%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Dalkurd FF attack 1.00 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IK brage scores more
49%
level
24%
Dalkurd FF scores more
27%

IK brage at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Frank Arhin
57'
A. Katsantonis← P. Abdulla
61'
Niklas Söderberg
66'
J. Stensson← J. Arvidsson
69'
A. Reinholdsson← D. Karlberg
69'
B. Rahmani← E. Montagna
77'
E. Gayi← J. Persson
77'
S. Izountouemoi← N. Söderberg
78'
F. Dixon← R. Rahmani

Shots

8IK

Statistics

IKDalkurd
Overview
8Total Shots8
3Corners3
10Fouls7
Shots
8Total Shots8
4Off Target7
2Blocked1
Discipline
10Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: IK brage vs Dalkurd FF

IK brage and Dalkurd FF drew 0-0 in Superettan on May 19, 2022.

The match was played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Borlänge.