IK brage 3–1 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

IK brage

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dalkurd FF

9/15/2019

Superettan · Round 23Domnarvsvallen (Borlänge)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

IK brage48%

×Draw25%

Dalkurd FF27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK brageExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.16

IK brage

1.64

Dalkurd FF

1.16

IK brage creates 41% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 49 away

1.61

creates per match

0.98

1.34

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

IK brage

1.61

Dalkurd FF

0.98

allows per match

IK brage

1.34

Dalkurd FF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IK brage or draw

73%

IK brage or Dalkurd FF

75%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

52%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+

25%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals

81%

IK brage 2+ goals

49%

IK brage 3+ goals

23%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

69%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

32%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)

64%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

IK brage scores more

48%

level

25%

Dalkurd FF scores more

27%

IK brage at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff