Ijsselmeervogels 7–0 Harkemase Boys: Result & Stats

Ijsselmeervogels

FT

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Harkemase Boys

2/8/2025

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 22Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ijsselmeervogels58%

×Draw20%

Harkemase Boys22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IjsselmeervogelsExpected goals in this matchHarkemase Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.35

Ijsselmeervogels

2.29

Harkemase Boys

1.35

Ijsselmeervogels creates 70% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 98 away

3.00

creates per match

1.68

1.03

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Ijsselmeervogels

3.00

Harkemase Boys

1.68

allows per match

Ijsselmeervogels

1.03

Harkemase Boys

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par

Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ijsselmeervogels ↓

Harkemase Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ijsselmeervogels or draw

78%

Ijsselmeervogels or Harkemase Boys

80%

Draw or Harkemase Boys

42%

Winning margin

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+

36%

Harkemase Boys wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals

90%

Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals

66%

Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals

40%

Harkemase Boys 1+ goals

74%

Harkemase Boys 2+ goals

39%

Harkemase Boys 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)

73%

Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ijsselmeervogels at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ijsselmeervogels attack 3.00 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.29

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ijsselmeervogels scores more

58%

level

20%

Harkemase Boys scores more

22%

Ijsselmeervogels at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ijsselmeervogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff