Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Harkemase Boys vs Ijsselmeervogels — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ijsselmeervogels
Ijsselmeervogels
9/14/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 5Sportpark de Bosk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Harkemase Boys36%
×Draw23%
Ijsselmeervogels41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harkemase Boys
1.59
Ijsselmeervogels
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 34 away

creates per match

Harkemase Boys
1.93
Ijsselmeervogels
2.00

allows per match

Harkemase Boys
1.39
Ijsselmeervogels
1.26

finishing

Harkemase Boys+0.00on par
Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harkemase Boys ↓

Ijsselmeervogels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Harkemase Boys or draw
59%
Harkemase Boys or Ijsselmeervogels
77%
Draw or Ijsselmeervogels
64%

Winning margin

Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
18%
Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
80%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
47%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
21%
Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals
82%
Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals
50%
Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
47%
Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harkemase Boys at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

Ijsselmeervogels away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harkemase Boys attack 1.93 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ijsselmeervogels attack 2.00 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Harkemase Boys scores more
36%
level
23%
Ijsselmeervogels scores more
41%

Ijsselmeervogels at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ijsselmeervogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Harkemase Boys vs Ijsselmeervogels

Ijsselmeervogels beat Harkemase Boys 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark de Bosk in Harkema.