III. Kerületi TUE 3–2 Haladás VSE: Result & Stats

III. Kerületi TUE

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Haladás VSE

3/24/2024

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 21Hévízi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

III. Kerületi TUE52%

×Draw23%

Haladás VSE25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

III. Kerületi TUEExpected goals in this matchHaladás VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.20

III. Kerületi TUE

1.83

Haladás VSE

1.20

III. Kerületi TUE creates 53% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

2.13

creates per match

1.27

1.13

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

III. Kerületi TUE

2.13

Haladás VSE

1.27

allows per match

III. Kerületi TUE

1.13

Haladás VSE

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Haladás VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

III. Kerületi TUE ↓

Haladás VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

III. Kerületi TUE or draw

75%

III. Kerületi TUE or Haladás VSE

77%

Draw or Haladás VSE

48%

Winning margin

III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+

29%

Haladás VSE wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals

84%

III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals

54%

III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals

28%

Haladás VSE 1+ goals

70%

Haladás VSE 2+ goals

34%

Haladás VSE 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)

68%

Haladás VSE (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

III. Kerületi TUE at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Haladás VSE away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

III. Kerületi TUE attack 2.13 + Haladás VSE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.83

Haladás VSE attack 1.27 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

III. Kerületi TUE scores more

52%

level

23%

Haladás VSE scores more

25%

III. Kerületi TUE at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff