Haladás VSE 2–2 III. Kerületi TUE: Result & Stats

Haladás VSE

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

III. Kerületi TUE

8/18/2024

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 4Haladás Sportelep Kondics uti pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Haladás VSE29%

×Draw24%

III. Kerületi TUE48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haladás VSEExpected goals in this matchIII. Kerületi TUE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.71

Haladás VSE

1.27

III. Kerületi TUE

1.71

III. Kerületi TUE creates 35% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.38

creates per match

1.67

1.76

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Haladás VSE

1.38

III. Kerületi TUE

1.67

allows per match

Haladás VSE

1.76

III. Kerületi TUE

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haladás VSE+0.00on par

III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haladás VSE ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Haladás VSE or draw

52%

Haladás VSE or III. Kerületi TUE

76%

Draw or III. Kerületi TUE

71%

Winning margin

Haladás VSE wins by 2+

12%

III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Haladás VSE 1+ goals

72%

Haladás VSE 2+ goals

36%

Haladás VSE 3+ goals

14%

III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals

82%

III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals

51%

III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Haladás VSE (draw refunded)

37%

III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haladás VSE at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haladás VSE attack 1.38 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

III. Kerületi TUE attack 1.67 + Haladás VSE defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Haladás VSE scores more

29%

level

24%

III. Kerületi TUE scores more

48%

III. Kerületi TUE at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff