Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion — Liga Leumit 2019

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
8/24/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 1Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram25%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.11
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.70

Hapoel Rishon LeZion creates 53% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 129 away

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.89
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.18

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.22
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.33

finishing

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par
Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Shfaram ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or draw
49%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
76%
Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
75%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
10%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
67%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
30%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
10%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
82%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
51%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
33%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 0.89 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.18 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
25%
level
24%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
51%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Rishon LeZion beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1-0 in Liga Leumit on August 24, 2023.

The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in Accre.