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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1/5/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 16Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion57%
×Draw21%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
2.02
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.16

Hapoel Rishon LeZion creates 74% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.24
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.11

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.21
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.79

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Ihud Bnei Shfaram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
79%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
79%
Draw or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
43%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
34%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
87%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
60%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
33%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
69%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
32%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
73%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 131 matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.24 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.02

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 1.11 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
57%
level
21%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
21%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram

Hapoel Rishon LeZion and Ihud Bnei Shfaram drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on January 5, 2024.

The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon LeZion.