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Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Hapoel Ramat Gan — Liga Leumit 2019

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan
9/21/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 5Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram22%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Ramat Gan55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.01
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.76

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 74% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 129 away

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.89
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.30

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.22
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.12

finishing

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Shfaram ↓

Hapoel Ramat Gan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or draw
45%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram or Hapoel Ramat Gan
76%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat Gan
78%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
8%
Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
64%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
27%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
8%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals
83%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals
52%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
28%
Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 0.89 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.30 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
22%
level
24%
Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more
55%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Hapoel Ramat Gan

Hapoel Ramat Gan beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1-0 in Liga Leumit on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in Accre.