Hapoel Ramat Gan 1–0 Ihud Bnei Shfaram

Hapoel Ramat Gan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

2/6/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 20National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan61%

×Draw20%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Ramat GanExpected goals in this matchIhud Bnei Shfaram

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.11

Hapoel Ramat Gan

2.16

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

1.11

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 95% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 19 away

1.52

creates per match

1.11

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.52

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

1.11

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.11

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat Gan ↓

Ihud Bnei Shfaram →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat Gan or draw

81%

Hapoel Ramat Gan or Ihud Bnei Shfaram

80%

Draw or Ihud Bnei Shfaram

39%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+

38%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals

88%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals

63%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals

36%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals

67%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals

30%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)

77%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat Gan at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.52 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.16

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 1.11 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more

61%

level

20%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more

19%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram

Hapoel Ramat Gan beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1-0 in Liga Leumit on February 6, 2024.

The match was played at National Stadium Ramat Gan in Ramat Gan.

Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram — Liga Leumit 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram