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Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit — Liga Leumit 2019

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
9/11/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 3Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram26%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.16
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.73

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 49% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
0.89
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.23

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.22
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.42

finishing

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par
Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Shfaram ↓

Hapoel Nazareth Illit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or draw
49%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram or Hapoel Nazareth Illit
76%
Draw or Hapoel Nazareth Illit
74%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
10%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
69%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
32%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
11%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
82%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
52%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
34%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 0.89 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.23 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
26%
level
24%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
51%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ihud Bnei Shfaram vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Ihud Bnei Shfaram beat Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3-2 in Liga Leumit on September 11, 2023.

The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in Accre.