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Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1/19/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 18Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit59%
×Draw21%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
2.09
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.13

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 85% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.39
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
1.11

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.15
Ihud Bnei Shfaram
2.79

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par
Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Ihud Bnei Shfaram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw
80%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
79%
Draw or Ihud Bnei Shfaram
41%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
36%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
88%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
62%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
34%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals
68%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals
31%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
75%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.39 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.09

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 1.11 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
59%
level
21%
Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more
20%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Ihud Bnei Shfaram

Hapoel Nazareth Illit beat Ihud Bnei Shfaram 5-0 in Liga Leumit on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Nazareth Illit.