Ihud Bnei Shfaram 0–1 Hapoel Acre: Result & Stats

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Acre

4/1/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 28Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram24%

×Draw25%

Hapoel Acre51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ihud Bnei ShfaramExpected goals in this matchHapoel Acre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.65

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

1.06

Hapoel Acre

1.65

Hapoel Acre creates 56% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 130 away

0.89

creates per match

1.07

2.22

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

0.89

Hapoel Acre

1.07

allows per match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

2.22

Hapoel Acre

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihud Bnei Shfaram ↓

Hapoel Acre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or draw

49%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram or Hapoel Acre

75%

Draw or Hapoel Acre

76%

Winning margin

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+

9%

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals

65%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals

29%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals

9%

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals

81%

Hapoel Acre 2+ goals

49%

Hapoel Acre 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)

32%

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihud Bnei Shfaram at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 0.89 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Hapoel Acre attack 1.07 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more

24%

level

25%

Hapoel Acre scores more

51%

Hapoel Acre at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hapoel Acre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff