Hapoel Acre 1–1 Ihud Bnei Shfaram: Result & Stats

Hapoel Acre

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

12/18/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 13Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hapoel Acre58%

×Draw22%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AcreExpected goals in this matchIhud Bnei Shfaram

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.08

Hapoel Acre

1.98

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

1.08

Hapoel Acre creates 83% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 19 away

1.16

creates per match

1.11

1.04

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Hapoel Acre

1.16

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

1.11

allows per match

Hapoel Acre

1.04

Ihud Bnei Shfaram

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Ihud Bnei Shfaram+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Acre ↓

Ihud Bnei Shfaram →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hapoel Acre or draw

80%

Hapoel Acre or Ihud Bnei Shfaram

78%

Draw or Ihud Bnei Shfaram

42%

Winning margin

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+

35%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals

86%

Hapoel Acre 2+ goals

59%

Hapoel Acre 3+ goals

31%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 1+ goals

66%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 2+ goals

29%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)

74%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Acre at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.04 · 129 matches

Ihud Bnei Shfaram away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Acre attack 1.16 + Ihud Bnei Shfaram defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ihud Bnei Shfaram attack 1.11 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hapoel Acre scores more

58%

level

22%

Ihud Bnei Shfaram scores more

20%

Hapoel Acre at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hapoel Acre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff