Ihefu 3–1 Geita Gold: Result & Stats

Ihefu

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Geita Gold

R. Mtabwigwa 45'

R. Loth 34'

Y. Songne 14'

A. Kadikilo 57'

6/6/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 29Highland Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ihefu47%

×Draw29%

Geita Gold24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IhefuExpected goals in this matchGeita Gold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.83

Ihefu

1.28

Geita Gold

0.83

Ihefu creates 54% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 45 away

1.17

creates per match

0.82

0.85

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Ihefu

1.17

Geita Gold

0.82

allows per match

Ihefu

0.85

Geita Gold

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ihefu+0.00on par

Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ihefu ↓

Geita Gold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ihefu or draw

76%

Ihefu or Geita Gold

71%

Draw or Geita Gold

53%

Winning margin

Ihefu wins by 2+

22%

Geita Gold wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ihefu 1+ goals

72%

Ihefu 2+ goals

37%

Ihefu 3+ goals

14%

Geita Gold 1+ goals

56%

Geita Gold 2+ goals

20%

Geita Gold 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ihefu (draw refunded)

66%

Geita Gold (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ihefu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ihefu attack 1.17 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + Ihefu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ihefu scores more

47%

level

29%

Geita Gold scores more

24%

Ihefu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ihefu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Y. Songne

34'

R. Loth

45'

R. Mtabwigwa

57'

A. Kadikilo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff