Geita Gold 1–0 Ihefu: Result & Stats

Geita Gold

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ihefu

J. Luzio 41'

11/25/2022

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 14Nyankumbu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Geita Gold48%

×Draw29%

Ihefu23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Geita GoldExpected goals in this matchIhefu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.80

Geita Gold

1.28

Ihefu

0.80

Geita Gold creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 47 away

1.09

creates per match

0.57

1.04

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Geita Gold

1.09

Ihefu

0.57

allows per match

Geita Gold

1.04

Ihefu

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geita Gold+0.00on par

Ihefu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geita Gold ↓

Ihefu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Geita Gold or draw

77%

Geita Gold or Ihefu

71%

Draw or Ihefu

52%

Winning margin

Geita Gold wins by 2+

22%

Ihefu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Geita Gold 1+ goals

72%

Geita Gold 2+ goals

37%

Geita Gold 3+ goals

14%

Ihefu 1+ goals

55%

Ihefu 2+ goals

19%

Ihefu 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Geita Gold (draw refunded)

67%

Ihefu (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geita Gold at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Ihefu away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geita Gold attack 1.09 + Ihefu defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ihefu attack 0.57 + Geita Gold defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Geita Gold scores more

48%

level

29%

Ihefu scores more

23%

Geita Gold at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Geita Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

J. Luzio↳ S. Ntibazonkiza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff