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Igman Konjic vs Tuzla City — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
10/11/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 8Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Igman Konjic67%
×Draw21%
Tuzla City12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.86
Tuzla City
0.64

Igman Konjic creates 191% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 27 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.53
Tuzla City
0.48

allows per match

Igman Konjic
0.80
Tuzla City
2.19

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Tuzla City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
88%
Igman Konjic or Tuzla City
79%
Draw or Tuzla City
33%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
40%
Tuzla City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
84%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
55%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
28%
Tuzla City 1+ goals
47%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
14%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
85%
Tuzla City (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.53 + Tuzla City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.86

Tuzla City attack 0.48 + Igman Konjic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
67%
level
21%
Tuzla City scores more
12%

Igman Konjic at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs Tuzla City

Igman Konjic beat Tuzla City 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.