Igman Konjic 2–0 Tuzla City: Result & Stats

Igman Konjic

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Tuzla City

12/10/2023

Premijer Liga · Round 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Igman Konjic40%

×Draw27%

Tuzla City33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Igman KonjicExpected goals in this matchTuzla City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.18

Igman Konjic

1.33

Tuzla City

1.18

Igman Konjic creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 78 away

1.06

creates per match

1.04

1.31

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Igman Konjic

1.06

Tuzla City

1.04

allows per match

Igman Konjic

1.31

Tuzla City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Tuzla City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw

67%

Igman Konjic or Tuzla City

73%

Draw or Tuzla City

60%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

18%

Tuzla City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

74%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

38%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

15%

Tuzla City 1+ goals

69%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

33%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

55%

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.06 + Tuzla City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tuzla City attack 1.04 + Igman Konjic defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Igman Konjic scores more

40%

level

27%

Tuzla City scores more

33%

Igman Konjic at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff