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Igman Konjic vs FK Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
10/27/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 11Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Igman Konjic32%
×Draw27%
FK Sarajevo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.13
FK Sarajevo
1.31

FK Sarajevo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 108 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.06
FK Sarajevo
1.32

allows per match

Igman Konjic
1.31
FK Sarajevo
1.19

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

FK Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
59%
Igman Konjic or FK Sarajevo
73%
Draw or FK Sarajevo
68%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
13%
FK Sarajevo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
68%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
31%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
11%
FK Sarajevo 1+ goals
73%
FK Sarajevo 2+ goals
38%
FK Sarajevo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
44%
FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

FK Sarajevo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.06 + FK Sarajevo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

FK Sarajevo attack 1.32 + Igman Konjic defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
32%
level
27%
FK Sarajevo scores more
41%

FK Sarajevo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Igman Konjic 0–3 FK Sarajevo

FK Sarajevo beat Igman Konjic 3-0 in Premijer Liga on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.