FK Sarajevo 2–2 Igman Konjic: Result & Stats

FK Sarajevo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Igman Konjic

3/9/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 22Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FK Sarajevo61%

×Draw21%

Igman Konjic18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK SarajevoExpected goals in this matchIgman Konjic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.00

FK Sarajevo

2.04

Igman Konjic

1.00

FK Sarajevo creates 104% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 51 away

1.77

creates per match

1.20

0.80

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

FK Sarajevo

1.77

Igman Konjic

1.20

allows per match

FK Sarajevo

0.80

Igman Konjic

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sarajevo ↓

Igman Konjic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FK Sarajevo or draw

82%

FK Sarajevo or Igman Konjic

79%

Draw or Igman Konjic

39%

Winning margin

FK Sarajevo wins by 2+

37%

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FK Sarajevo 1+ goals

87%

FK Sarajevo 2+ goals

60%

FK Sarajevo 3+ goals

33%

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

63%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

26%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)

77%

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sarajevo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.80 · 114 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sarajevo attack 1.77 + Igman Konjic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.04

Igman Konjic attack 1.20 + FK Sarajevo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FK Sarajevo scores more

61%

level

21%

Igman Konjic scores more

18%

FK Sarajevo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FK Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff