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Igman Konjic vs Bratstvo Gračanica — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
3 – 1
Bratstvo Gračanica
Bratstvo Gračanica
H. Kulovac 90+1' (OG)
A. Sabljica 65'
S. Ljuca 47'
I. Pendek 68'
8/28/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 3Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Igman Konjic52%
×Draw27%
Bratstvo Gračanica22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.46
Bratstvo Gračanica
0.84

Igman Konjic creates 74% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 97 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.55
Bratstvo Gračanica
0.91

allows per match

Igman Konjic
0.77
Bratstvo Gračanica
1.38

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Bratstvo Gračanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
78%
Igman Konjic or Bratstvo Gračanica
73%
Draw or Bratstvo Gračanica
48%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
26%
Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
77%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
43%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
18%
Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals
57%
Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals
21%
Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
70%
Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Bratstvo Gračanica away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.38 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.55 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 0.91 + Igman Konjic defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
52%
level
27%
Bratstvo Gračanica scores more
22%

Igman Konjic at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
S. Ljuca
65'
A. Sabljica
68'
I. Pendek
90+1'
H. KulovacOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs Bratstvo Gračanica

Igman Konjic beat Bratstvo Gračanica 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on August 28, 2021.

Goals: S. Ljuca (47'), A. Sabljica (65'), I. Pendek (68'), H. Kulovac (90+1' o.g.).

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.