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Bratstvo Gračanica vs Igman Konjic — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Bratstvo Gračanica
Bratstvo Gračanica
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
A. Durakovic 42'
11/2/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 11Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Bratstvo Gračanica50%
×Draw25%
Igman Konjic25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.61
Igman Konjic
1.06

Bratstvo Gračanica creates 52% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 54 away

creates per match

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.83
Igman Konjic
0.98

allows per match

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.15
Igman Konjic
1.39

finishing

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par
Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Gračanica ↓

Igman Konjic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bratstvo Gračanica or draw
75%
Bratstvo Gračanica or Igman Konjic
75%
Draw or Igman Konjic
50%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+
26%
Igman Konjic wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals
80%
Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals
48%
Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals
22%
Igman Konjic 1+ goals
65%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
29%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)
67%
Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Gračanica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 98 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 1.83 + Igman Konjic defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

Igman Konjic attack 0.98 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more
50%
level
25%
Igman Konjic scores more
25%

Bratstvo Gračanica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bratstvo Gračanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
A. Durakovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Bratstvo Gračanica 1–0 Igman Konjic

Bratstvo Gračanica beat Igman Konjic 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 2, 2025.

Goals: A. Durakovic (42').

The match was played at Gradski stadion Luke in Gračanica.