Igman Konjic 0–1 Borac Banja Luka: Result & Stats

Igman Konjic

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Borac Banja Luka

11/25/2023

Premijer Liga · Round 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Igman Konjic29%

×Draw28%

Borac Banja Luka43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Igman KonjicExpected goals in this matchBorac Banja Luka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.31

Igman Konjic

1.02

Borac Banja Luka

1.31

Borac Banja Luka creates 28% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 109 away

1.06

creates per match

1.30

1.31

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Igman Konjic

1.06

Borac Banja Luka

1.30

allows per match

Igman Konjic

1.31

Borac Banja Luka

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Borac Banja Luka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw

57%

Igman Konjic or Borac Banja Luka

72%

Draw or Borac Banja Luka

71%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

11%

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

64%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

27%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

8%

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals

73%

Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals

38%

Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

40%

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.06 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + Igman Konjic defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Igman Konjic scores more

29%

level

28%

Borac Banja Luka scores more

43%

Borac Banja Luka at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff