Borac Banja Luka 4–3 Igman Konjic: Result & Stats

Borac Banja Luka

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Igman Konjic

5/20/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 32Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Borac Banja Luka66%

×Draw19%

Igman Konjic15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchIgman Konjic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.92

Borac Banja Luka

2.17

Igman Konjic

0.92

Borac Banja Luka creates 136% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 51 away

2.02

creates per match

1.20

0.63

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Borac Banja Luka

2.02

Igman Konjic

1.20

allows per match

Borac Banja Luka

0.63

Igman Konjic

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Banja Luka ↓

Igman Konjic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Borac Banja Luka or draw

85%

Borac Banja Luka or Igman Konjic

81%

Draw or Igman Konjic

34%

Winning margin

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+

42%

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals

89%

Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals

64%

Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals

36%

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

60%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

23%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)

82%

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Banja Luka at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.63 · 114 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Banja Luka attack 2.02 + Igman Konjic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.17

Igman Konjic attack 1.20 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Borac Banja Luka scores more

66%

level

19%

Igman Konjic scores more

15%

Borac Banja Luka at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff