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Igilik vs FK Aksu — 1. Division 2019

Igilik
Igilik
FT
0 – 4
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
10/16/20211. Division1. Division · Round 20Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Igilik15%
×Draw19%
FK Aksu66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igilik
1.02
FK Aksu
2.32

FK Aksu creates 127% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

creates per match

Igilik
1.04
FK Aksu
2.18

allows per match

Igilik
2.46
FK Aksu
1.00

finishing

Igilik+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igilik ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Igilik or draw
34%
Igilik or FK Aksu
81%
Draw or FK Aksu
85%

Winning margin

Igilik wins by 2+
5%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Igilik 1+ goals
64%
Igilik 2+ goals
27%
Igilik 3+ goals
8%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
90%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
67%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Igilik (draw refunded)
19%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igilik at home — creates 1.04, concedes 2.46 · 24 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igilik attack 1.04 + FK Aksu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

FK Aksu attack 2.18 + Igilik defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Igilik scores more
15%
level
19%
FK Aksu scores more
66%

FK Aksu at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Igilik 0–4 FK Aksu

FK Aksu beat Igilik 4-0 in 1. Division on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Karatau.