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FK Aksu vs Igilik — 1. Division 2019

FK Aksu
FK Aksu
FT
2 – 0
Igilik
Igilik
6/25/20211. Division1. Division · Round 10Zhuldyz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FK Aksu82%
×Draw12%
Igilik6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Aksu
2.95
Igilik
0.72

FK Aksu creates 310% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 24 away

creates per match

FK Aksu
2.64
Igilik
0.71

allows per match

FK Aksu
0.73
Igilik
3.25

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par
Igilik+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

Igilik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw
94%
FK Aksu or Igilik
88%
Draw or Igilik
18%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+
62%
Igilik wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals
95%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
79%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
55%
Igilik 1+ goals
51%
Igilik 2+ goals
16%
Igilik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)
93%
Igilik (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Igilik away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 2.64 + Igilik defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.95

Igilik attack 0.71 + FK Aksu defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

FK Aksu scores more
82%
level
12%
Igilik scores more
6%

FK Aksu at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: FK Aksu 2–0 Igilik

FK Aksu beat Igilik 2-0 in 1. Division on June 25, 2021.

The match was played at Zhuldyz Stadion in Pavlodar.