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Igaci vs Guarany Alagoano — Alagoano - 2 2024

Igaci
Igaciadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guarany Alagoano
Guarany Alagoano
10/20/2024Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Municipal Zequinha Barbosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Igaci46%
×Draw24%
Guarany Alagoano30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igaci
1.62
Guarany Alagoano
1.26

Igaci creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Igaci
2.33
Guarany Alagoano
2.36

allows per match

Igaci
0.17
Guarany Alagoano
0.91

finishing

Igaci+0.00on par
Guarany Alagoano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igaci ↓

Guarany Alagoano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Igaci or draw
70%
Igaci or Guarany Alagoano
76%
Draw or Guarany Alagoano
54%

Winning margin

Igaci wins by 2+
24%
Guarany Alagoano wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Igaci 1+ goals
80%
Igaci 2+ goals
48%
Igaci 3+ goals
22%
Guarany Alagoano 1+ goals
72%
Guarany Alagoano 2+ goals
36%
Guarany Alagoano 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Igaci (draw refunded)
61%
Guarany Alagoano (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igaci at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

Guarany Alagoano away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igaci attack 2.33 + Guarany Alagoano defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.62

Guarany Alagoano attack 2.36 + Igaci defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Igaci scores more
46%
level
24%
Guarany Alagoano scores more
30%

Igaci at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Igaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alagoano - 2: Igaci 1–0 Guarany Alagoano

Igaci beat Guarany Alagoano 1-0 in Alagoano - 2 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Zequinha Barbosa in Igaci, Alagoas.