Guarany Alagoano 0–0 Igaci: Result & Stats

Guarany Alagoano

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Igaci

10/27/2024

Alagoano - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio José Gomes da Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Guarany Alagoano29%

×Draw37%

Igaci34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarany AlagoanoExpected goals in this matchIgaci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

0.78

Guarany Alagoano

0.69

Igaci

0.78

Igaci creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.09

creates per match

1.00

0.55

allows per match

0.29

creates per match

Guarany Alagoano

1.09

Igaci

1.00

allows per match

Guarany Alagoano

0.55

Igaci

0.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarany Alagoano+0.00on par

Igaci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under82
Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarany Alagoano ↓

Igaci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–118%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

43%57%2.5

18%82%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Guarany Alagoano or draw

66%

Guarany Alagoano or Igaci

63%

Draw or Igaci

71%

Winning margin

Guarany Alagoano wins by 2+

8%

Igaci wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Guarany Alagoano 1+ goals

50%

Guarany Alagoano 2+ goals

15%

Guarany Alagoano 3+ goals

3%

Igaci 1+ goals

54%

Igaci 2+ goals

18%

Igaci 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Guarany Alagoano (draw refunded)

46%

Igaci (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarany Alagoano at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Igaci away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarany Alagoano attack 1.09 + Igaci defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.69

Igaci attack 1.00 + Guarany Alagoano defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Guarany Alagoano scores more

29%

level

37%

Igaci scores more

34%

Igaci at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Igaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff