IFK Varnamo 1–1 IF Brommapojkarna: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

IF Brommapojkarna

M. Antonsson 90'

V. Lind 84'

10/19/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 27Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

IFK Varnamo33%

×Draw26%

IF Brommapojkarna41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.43

IFK Varnamo

1.25

IF Brommapojkarna

1.43

IF Brommapojkarna creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

1.09

creates per match

1.35

1.50

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.09

IF Brommapojkarna

1.35

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.50

IF Brommapojkarna

1.42

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

IFK Varnamo-0.09on par

IF Brommapojkarna+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

59%

IFK Varnamo or IF Brommapojkarna

74%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

67%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

14%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

71%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

36%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

13%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

76%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

42%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

44%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.50 · 17 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.42 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.09 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.35 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

33%

level

26%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

41%

IF Brommapojkarna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

O. Zanden

IF Brommapojkarna · D

8.2

Match Events

12'

Lukas Björklund

42'

Souleymane Coulibaly

46'

M. Antonsson← N. Shamoun

46'

E. Grozdanic← S. Coulibaly

63'

Mohammad Alsalkhadi

69'

K. Meriluoto← M. Alsalkhadi

69'

A. Kujundzic← S. Thern

70'

V. Lind← L. Arrhov

78'

I. Camara← S. Ngouali

78'

K. Barslund← A. Timossi

83'

H. Andersson← O. Liimatta

84'

V. Lind↳ D. Irandust

89'

E. Bjorkander← D. Irandust

90'

M. Antonsson↳ K. Meriluoto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKIF

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots21

0.84Expected Goals (xG)2.20

5Corners9

14Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots21

2On Target7

4Off Target11

6Blocked3

4Inside Box14

8Outside Box7

Passing

63%Possession37%

586Total Passes332

507Accurate Passes238

87%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2