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IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
J. Kalu 43'
A. Timossi Andersson 90'
5/12/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 8Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

IFK Varnamo34%
×Draw26%
IF Brommapojkarna40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.25
IF Brommapojkarna
1.40

IF Brommapojkarna creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.09
IF Brommapojkarna
1.35

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.45
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42

finishing

IFK Varnamo-0.09on par
IF Brommapojkarna+0.13scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
60%
IFK Varnamo or IF Brommapojkarna
74%
Draw or IF Brommapojkarna
66%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
14%
IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
71%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
36%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
13%
IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
75%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
41%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
45%
IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 18 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.42 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.09 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.35 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
34%
level
26%
IF Brommapojkarna scores more
40%

IF Brommapojkarna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
A. JensenIF BrommapojkarnaIF Brommapojkarna · D
7.7

Match Events

27'
Viktor Bergh
43'
J. Kalu↳ V. Bergh
46'
T. Waker← F. Christensen
57'
Ludvig Fritzson
63'
A. Zeljkovic← A. Lohikangas
69'
M. Alsalkhadi← J. Kalu
71'
A. Jakobsen← R. Örqvist
83'
Hampus Nasstrom
87'
S. Kotto← G. Engvall
87'
C. Johansson← F. Adjei
87'
L. Žuta← W. Odefalk
87'
P. Pichkah← A. Calisir
88'
K. Barslund← A. Abrahamsson
90'
A. Timossi Andersson↳ A. Jakobsen

Possession

48%IFK

Shots

8IFK

Pass accuracy

50%IFK

Statistics

IFKIF
Overview
48%Possession52%
8Total Shots12
7Corners9
12Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots12
2On Target3
3Off Target7
3Blocked2
5Inside Box9
3Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
430Total Passes452
337Accurate Passes351
78%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna

IFK Varnamo and IF Brommapojkarna drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on May 12, 2024.

Goals: J. Kalu (43'), A. Timossi Andersson (90').

IF Brommapojkarna controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Guldfågeln Arena in Kalmar.