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IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
7/27/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 17Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IFK Varnamo31%
×Draw26%
Hammarby FF43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.17
Hammarby FF
1.45

Hammarby FF creates 24% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 127 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.02
Hammarby FF
1.44

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.46
Hammarby FF
1.31

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
57%
IFK Varnamo or Hammarby FF
74%
Draw or Hammarby FF
69%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
12%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
69%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
33%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
11%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
77%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
42%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
41%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + Hammarby FF defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hammarby FF attack 1.44 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
31%
level
26%
Hammarby FF scores more
43%

Hammarby FF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF

Hammarby FF beat IFK Varnamo 3-2 in Allsvenskan on July 27, 2025.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Varnamo.