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Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo — Allsvenskan 2026

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
5/5/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 7Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Hammarby FF54%
×Draw24%
IFK Varnamo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
1.73
IFK Varnamo
1.00

Hammarby FF creates 73% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
1.71
IFK Varnamo
1.22

allows per match

Hammarby FF
0.79
IFK Varnamo
1.76

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.89scores more
IFK Varnamo+0.49scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
78%
Hammarby FF or IFK Varnamo
76%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
46%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
30%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
82%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
52%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
25%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
63%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
26%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
71%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 10 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.76 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 1.71 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

IFK Varnamo attack 1.22 + Hammarby FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
54%
level
24%
IFK Varnamo scores more
22%

Hammarby FF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Hammarby FF 1–2 IFK Varnamo

IFK Varnamo beat Hammarby FF 2-1 in Allsvenskan on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.