IFK Varnamo 1–2 Halmstad: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Halmstad

A. Zeljkovic 21'

V. Larsson 59' (OG)

V. Granath 47'

9/22/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 24Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IFK Varnamo43%

×Draw26%

Halmstad31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchHalmstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.15

IFK Varnamo

1.40

Halmstad

1.15

IFK Varnamo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 67 away

1.02

creates per match

0.84

1.46

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.02

Halmstad

0.84

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.46

Halmstad

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Halmstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Halmstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

69%

IFK Varnamo or Halmstad

74%

Draw or Halmstad

57%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

20%

Halmstad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

75%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

41%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

17%

Halmstad 1+ goals

68%

Halmstad 2+ goals

32%

Halmstad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

58%

Halmstad (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

Halmstad away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + Halmstad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.40

Halmstad attack 0.84 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

43%

level

26%

Halmstad scores more

31%

IFK Varnamo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

R. Mohammed

IFK Varnamo · D

8.3

Match Events

11'

Noah Shamoun

21'

A. Zeljkovic↳ K. Meriluoto

46'

N. Mohammed← N. Maenpaa

47'

V. Granath↳ N. Mohammed

59'

V. LarssonOwn goal

64'

C. Johansson← N. Shamoun

73'

Axel Björnström

77'

M. Persson← E. Yeboah

81'

S. Thern← M. Alsalkhadi

90'

G. Wallentin← R. Kaib

90+1'

G. Eyjolfsson← R. Ascone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKHalmstad

Overview

57%Possession43%

22Total Shots23

1.91Expected Goals (xG)2.07

8Corners6

7Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots23

4On Target9

9Off Target4

9Blocked10

12Inside Box18

10Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

505Total Passes385

415Accurate Passes285

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1