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Halmstad vs IFK Varnamo — Allsvenskan 2026

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
B. Ingason 63'
7/27/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 16Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Halmstad39%
×Draw27%
IFK Varnamo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.31
IFK Varnamo
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 61 away

creates per match

Halmstad
0.94
IFK Varnamo
1.28

allows per match

Halmstad
1.19
IFK Varnamo
1.69

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par
IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
65%
Halmstad or IFK Varnamo
73%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
61%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
17%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
73%
Halmstad 2+ goals
38%
Halmstad 3+ goals
14%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
71%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
35%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
53%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 67 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 0.94 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.31

IFK Varnamo attack 1.28 + Halmstad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Halmstad scores more
39%
level
27%
IFK Varnamo scores more
35%

Halmstad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. OlssonHalmstadHalmstad · D
7.9

Match Events

63'
B. Ingason
65'
B. Turgott← B. Ingason
65'
J. Allansson← N. Mäenpää
66'
Jonathan Svedberg
69'
F. Adjei← M. Alsalkhadi
69'
Wenderson← L. Le Roux
78'
M. Bustos← S. Kotto
89'
C. Johansson← J. Kalu
90+1'
B. Kurtulus← A. Johansson

Possession

42%Halmstad

Shots

11Halmstad

Pass accuracy

48%Halmstad

Statistics

HalmstadIFK
Overview
42%Possession58%
11Total Shots11
0.65Expected Goals (xG)0.51
4Corners6
8Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots11
5On Target3
3Off Target6
3Blocked2
9Inside Box7
2Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
475Total Passes636
371Accurate Passes549
78%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides5

Allsvenskan: Halmstad 1–0 IFK Varnamo

Halmstad beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 in Allsvenskan on July 27, 2024.

Goals: B. Ingason (63').

IFK Varnamo controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Örjans Vall in Halmstad.