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IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall — Superettan 2025

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
R. Dzabic 90+1'
A. Kamara 23'
J. Bengtsson 70'
4/18/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 2Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

IFK Varnamo44%
×Draw27%
GIF Sundsvall29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.39
GIF Sundsvall
1.07

IFK Varnamo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 24 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.36
GIF Sundsvall
0.88

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.27
GIF Sundsvall
1.42

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
71%
IFK Varnamo or GIF Sundsvall
73%
Draw or GIF Sundsvall
56%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
21%
GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
75%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
40%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
16%
GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
66%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
29%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
60%
GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.36 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

GIF Sundsvall attack 0.88 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
44%
level
27%
GIF Sundsvall scores more
29%

IFK Varnamo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Alhassan Kamara
10'
A. Ekström← R. Lundström
23'
A. Kamara
46'
C. Vindehall← A. Kamara
53'
Dennis Olsson
68'
P. Silfwer← D. Myrestam
68'
J. Carström← P. Pichkah
68'
J. Bengtsson← L. Hallenius
70'
J. Bengtsson
74'
I. Ismail← J. Stevens
74'
R. Dzabic← W. Kenndal
81'
F. De Vries← F. Winsth
86'
Bernardo Vilar
89'
Charlie Vindehall
90+1'
R. Dzabic

Statistics

IFKGIF
Overview
11Corners1
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall

IFK Varnamo beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1 in Superettan on April 18, 2021.

Goals: A. Kamara (23'), J. Bengtsson (70'), R. Dzabic (90+1').

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.