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GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo — Superettan 2025

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
L. Hallenius 77'
A. Blomqvist 45+1'
8/14/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 16NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

GIF Sundsvall51%
×Draw23%
IFK Varnamo26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.86
IFK Varnamo
1.27

GIF Sundsvall creates 46% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.19
IFK Varnamo
0.85

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.69
IFK Varnamo
2.54

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par
IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
74%
GIF Sundsvall or IFK Varnamo
77%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
49%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
29%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
84%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
55%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
28%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
72%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
36%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
66%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.19 + IFK Varnamo defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.86

IFK Varnamo attack 0.85 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
51%
level
23%
IFK Varnamo scores more
26%

GIF Sundsvall at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
A. Blomqvist
51'
J. Carström← D. Myrestam
65'
Erick Brendon← O. Uddenäs
65'
B. Hajdari← A. Magashy
77'
L. Hallenius
78'
A. Sundgren← F. Winsth
78'
I. Ismail← Wenderson
80'
R. Lundström← L. Nåvik
85'
H. Andersson← O. Johansson
88'
J. Bengtsson← L. Hallenius
88'
A. Palmlöv← E. Andersson
90+3'
Niklas Dahlstrom
90+4'
Ismail Isse

Possession

45%GIF

Shots

7GIF

Statistics

GIFIFK
Overview
45%Possession55%
7Total Shots15
5Corners11
10Fouls6
Shots
7Total Shots15
5On Target5
2Off Target10
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo

GIF Sundsvall beat IFK Varnamo 2-0 in Superettan on August 14, 2021.

Goals: A. Blomqvist (45+1'), L. Hallenius (77').

IFK Varnamo controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.