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IFK Varnamo vs Gais — Allsvenskan 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Gais
Gais
4/8/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 2Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

IFK Varnamo33%
×Draw27%
Gais40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.19
Gais
1.34

Gais creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 36 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.02
Gais
1.22

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.46
Gais
1.36

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
60%
IFK Varnamo or Gais
73%
Draw or Gais
67%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
14%
Gais wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
70%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
33%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
12%
Gais 1+ goals
74%
Gais 2+ goals
39%
Gais 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
45%
Gais (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

Gais away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + Gais defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gais attack 1.22 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
33%
level
27%
Gais scores more
40%

Gais at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: IFK Varnamo 1–2 Gais

Gais beat IFK Varnamo 2-1 in Allsvenskan on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.