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Gais vs IFK Varnamo — Allsvenskan 2026

Gais
Gais
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
5/10/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 8Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Gais50%
×Draw24%
IFK Varnamo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.71
IFK Varnamo
1.15

Gais creates 49% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gais
1.66
IFK Varnamo
1.22

allows per match

Gais
1.07
IFK Varnamo
1.76

finishing

Gais-0.26scores less
IFK Varnamo+0.49scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gais or draw
74%
Gais or IFK Varnamo
76%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
50%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
27%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
82%
Gais 2+ goals
51%
Gais 3+ goals
24%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
68%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
32%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
66%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.07 · 10 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.76 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.66 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

IFK Varnamo attack 1.22 + Gais defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gais scores more
50%
level
24%
IFK Varnamo scores more
26%

Gais at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gais vs IFK Varnamo

Gais and IFK Varnamo drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.