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IFK Varnamo vs Gais — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gais
Gais
2/26/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Ljusseveka 8 Värnamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

IFK Varnamo37%
×Draw24%
Gais40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.52
Gais
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.38
Gais
1.44

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.75
Gais
1.67

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
60%
IFK Varnamo or Gais
76%
Draw or Gais
63%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
18%
Gais wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
78%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
45%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
20%
Gais 1+ goals
80%
Gais 2+ goals
47%
Gais 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
48%
Gais (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Gais away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.38 + Gais defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gais attack 1.44 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
37%
level
24%
Gais scores more
40%

Gais at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: IFK Varnamo 1–0 Gais

IFK Varnamo beat Gais 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Ljusseveka 8 Värnamo in Värnamo.