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IFK Varnamo vs AFC Eskilstuna — Superettan 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
A. Magashy 90+6'
A. Alsanati 53'
8/7/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 15Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

IFK Varnamo46%
×Draw26%
AFC Eskilstuna27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.46
AFC Eskilstuna
1.06

IFK Varnamo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 75 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.32
AFC Eskilstuna
1.00

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.11
AFC Eskilstuna
1.60

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
73%
IFK Varnamo or AFC Eskilstuna
74%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
54%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
23%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
77%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
43%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
18%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
65%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
29%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
63%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.32 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
46%
level
26%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
27%

IFK Varnamo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
Pontus Rödin
51'
Oscar Uddenas
53'
A. Alsanati
55'
Jesper Manns
58'
William Kenndal
60'
Kazuki Takahashi
61'
J. Stevens← O. Uddenäs
61'
R. Dzabic← E. Becirovic
62'
Y. Rafael← A. Linnér
64'
F. De Vries← F. Winsth
70'
M. Bazi← V. Götesson
70'
A. Yakubu← A. Alsanati
70'
V. Fors← J. Manns
78'
C. Vindehall← Wenderson
78'
Erick Brendon← W. Kenndal
79'
Charlie Vindehall
90'
Noel Tornqvist
90+6'
A. Magashy

Possession

52%IFK

Shots

17IFK

Statistics

IFKAFC
Overview
52%Possession48%
17Total Shots7
10Corners5
10Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots7
9On Target3
8Off Target4
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
Discipline
10Fouls13
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
4Offsides0

Superettan: IFK Varnamo 1–1 AFC Eskilstuna

IFK Varnamo and AFC Eskilstuna drew 1-1 in Superettan on August 7, 2021.

Goals: A. Alsanati (53'), A. Magashy (90+6').

IFK Varnamo controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.