AFC Eskilstuna 0–2 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

IFK Varnamo

V. Larsson 37'

F. de Vries 28'

11/1/2021

Superettan · Round 27Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna53%

×Draw24%

IFK Varnamo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.01

AFC Eskilstuna

1.69

IFK Varnamo

1.01

AFC Eskilstuna creates 67% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 39 away

1.55

creates per match

1.05

0.97

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.55

IFK Varnamo

1.05

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.97

IFK Varnamo

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

77%

AFC Eskilstuna or IFK Varnamo

76%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

47%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

29%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

82%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

50%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

24%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

64%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

27%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

70%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.55 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

IFK Varnamo attack 1.05 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

53%

level

24%

IFK Varnamo scores more

23%

AFC Eskilstuna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

Ismet Lushaku

16'

V. Larsson← V. Eriksson

28'

F. de Vries

37'

V. Larsson

45+1'

André Alsanati

66'

C. Vindehall← W. Kenndal

66'

C. Moses← E. Becirovic

68'

Abdelkarim Chaouche

70'

Ashley Coffey

77'

A. Larsson← V. Götesson

77'

A. Ahl-Holmström← A. Coffey

77'

I. Touré← I. Lushaku

82'

A. Yakubu← A. Alsanati

82'

A. Linnér← Y. Rafael

82'

I. Ismail← O. Uddenäs

90'

Adam Larsson

90+3'

Freddy Winst

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AFCIFK

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots7

3Corners4

24Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots7

5On Target4

4Off Target3

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

24Fouls21

5Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1