IFK Norrkoping 1–0 Vasby United: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vasby United

S. Andersson 87'

8/7/2017

Allsvenskan · Round 18Östgötaporten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

IFK Norrkoping59%

×Draw22%

Vasby United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchVasby United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.95

IFK Norrkoping

1.88

Vasby United

0.95

IFK Norrkoping creates 98% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 22 away

1.66

creates per match

0.64

1.26

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.66

Vasby United

0.64

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.26

Vasby United

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Vasby United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Vasby United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

81%

IFK Norrkoping or Vasby United

78%

Draw or Vasby United

41%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

35%

Vasby United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

85%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

56%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

29%

Vasby United 1+ goals

61%

Vasby United 2+ goals

25%

Vasby United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

76%

Vasby United (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.26 · 122 matches

Vasby United away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.66 + Vasby United defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.88

Vasby United attack 0.64 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

59%

level

22%

Vasby United scores more

19%

IFK Norrkoping at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

D. Mitov-Nilsson

IFK Norrkoping · G

8.1

Match Events

45'

Chidi Dauda Omeje

53'

Zurab Tsiskaridze

57'

S. Andersson← E. Smith

58'

Alexander Jakobsen

60'

F. Dagerstål← N. Tkalčić

64'

Mohamed Buya

67'

S. Alexandersson← C. Omeje

75'

G. Thórarinsson← D. Sjölund

75'

T. Piermayr← A. Raskaj

80'

S. Matic← O. Eddahri

87'

S. Andersson↳ G. Thórarinsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKVasby

Overview

64%Possession36%

11Total Shots16

9Corners7

15Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots16

2On Target6

7Off Target6

2Blocked4

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

556Total Passes308

451Accurate Passes215

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides8