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IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS — Superettan 2018

IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
4/28/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 4Norrkopings Idrottspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

IFK Norrkoping57%
×Draw23%
Landskrona BoIS20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Norrkoping
1.82
Landskrona BoIS
0.99

IFK Norrkoping creates 84% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 98 away

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping
2.00
Landskrona BoIS
1.16

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping
0.83
Landskrona BoIS
1.64

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw
80%
IFK Norrkoping or Landskrona BoIS
77%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
43%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
32%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
84%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
54%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
27%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
63%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
26%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
74%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.00 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + IFK Norrkoping defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more
57%
level
23%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
20%

IFK Norrkoping at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS

Landskrona BoIS beat IFK Norrkoping 3-1 in Superettan on April 28, 2026.

The match was played at Norrkopings Idrottspark in Norrkoping.