IFK Norrkoping 0–2 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hammarby FF

8/10/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 19Platinumcars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

IFK Norrkoping30%

×Draw26%

Hammarby FF44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.48

IFK Norrkoping

1.17

Hammarby FF

1.48

Hammarby FF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

1.32

creates per match

1.21

1.74

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.32

Hammarby FF

1.21

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.74

Hammarby FF

1.01

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

IFK Norrkoping-0.18scores less

Hammarby FF-0.08on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

56%

IFK Norrkoping or Hammarby FF

74%

Draw or Hammarby FF

70%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

12%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

69%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

33%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

11%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

77%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

43%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

40%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.01 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.32 + Hammarby FF defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hammarby FF attack 1.21 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

30%

level

26%

Hammarby FF scores more

44%

Hammarby FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff