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Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping — Allsvenskan 2026

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
5/11/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 83Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hammarby FF60%
×Draw21%
IFK Norrkoping19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
2.03
IFK Norrkoping
1.06

Hammarby FF creates 92% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
1.71
IFK Norrkoping
1.32

allows per match

Hammarby FF
0.79
IFK Norrkoping
2.35

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.89scores more
IFK Norrkoping-0.32scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
81%
Hammarby FF or IFK Norrkoping
79%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
40%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
36%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
87%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
60%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
33%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
65%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
29%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
76%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 10 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.35 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 1.71 + IFK Norrkoping defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.03

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.32 + Hammarby FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
60%
level
21%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
19%

Hammarby FF at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping

Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.