IFK Norrkoping 3–0 Halmstad: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Halmstad

4/19/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 4Platinumcars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

IFK Norrkoping36%

×Draw25%

Halmstad39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchHalmstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.46

IFK Norrkoping

1.40

Halmstad

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.32

creates per match

1.18

1.74

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.32

Halmstad

1.18

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.74

Halmstad

1.48

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

IFK Norrkoping-0.18scores less

Halmstad-0.09on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Halmstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

61%

IFK Norrkoping or Halmstad

75%

Draw or Halmstad

64%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

17%

Halmstad wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

75%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

41%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

17%

Halmstad 1+ goals

77%

Halmstad 2+ goals

43%

Halmstad 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

48%

Halmstad (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.48 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.32 + Halmstad defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Halmstad attack 1.18 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

36%

level

25%

Halmstad scores more

39%

Halmstad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff